I actually agree with the predictions. We are right now mostly still in the ad life of 10 years ago, the ads got more rich and have some targeting but are still not there where they could be. Especially with all new social networks and the ability to target people better through behavior and location when they use their mobile device.
Mobile is still a child in comparison to desktop Internet, but we saw how fast the desktop Internet did grow, mobile will grow at least 2.5 times faster. And desktops or notebooks will have earlier or later GPS build in. The technology gets cheaper and cheaper and advertisers will drive manufactures to have this function or other location defining technology in all computers. It will not be driven by the consumer, but it will be market that the consumer believes manufactures do include (in their hardware) such technology because it makes the life easier.
Who does not want to sit at the notebook in Starbucks reading Facebook and posting on the wall how good the coffee is and have instantly the location posted with it (mobile devices can do this already). The advertising market will change extremely, as soon location technology is included in all type of computers. Right now if a consumer is using a desktop or notebook for Internet surfing many geo related targeted ads are a hit or miss, because the IP address does not give enough correct information.
Some parts of the NYT blog:
Neal Mohan, the vice president for product management responsible for Google’s display advertising products, and Barry Salzman, managing director of media and platforms for the Americas at Google, who runs display ad sales, envisioned a Web where the ads are more social, mobile and real-time — and a lot more profitable.
1. Google announced two new kinds of video ads for YouTube and predicted that half of display ads would include cost-per-view videos that viewers choose to watch. On YouTube, people will be able to skip video ads they don’t like after five seconds (and the advertiser won’t pay for those views) or choose which of three ads to watch.
2. Half of the audience will be viewing ads in real-time, Google predicted. That means changing elements of ads on the fly based on things like location, the viewer’s interests and the weather. Google demonstrated technology from Teracent, an advertising company it acquired, that changes a car ad depending on whether the viewer is in a sunny or rainy place, is a woman or a man, and prefers shopping or sports. The technology would allow “millions of possible permutations,” Mr. Salzman said.
3. Google has been talking for a while about mobile being a priority and predicted that cellphone screens would be the No. 1 screen for viewing the Web by 2015. In display advertising, that means using phones to bridge the gap between a magazine ad and an online ad. An app called Google Goggles already lets people take photos of things like a landmark to search for them on Google. Eventually, people will be able to take a cellphone photo of a print automobile ad, for instance, and see the car in 3-D, zoom in and visit the company’s Web site.
4. There are metrics more important than clicks. “Whatever the marketing goal is, you should be able to measure it,” Mr. Salzman said. In addition to measuring engagement with rich media ads and video views, other examples of new forms of advertising measurement include “sentiment analysis” that examines “the tone of consumer comments about a brand” and geo-based metrics will allow marketers to measure the increase in foot traffic or to their stores.
5. Three quarters of all ads will be socially enabled. “All users will be able to share an ad, comment on an ad and give feedback on an ad,” said Mr. Mohan. Instead of advertisers talking to consumers directly, Mr. Mohan envisioned “a two-way communication channel between a brand and its consumers.”
6. Rich media ads will comprise 50 percent of all campaigns. According to Mr. Salzman, “Static banner ads will become a thing of the past.” To illustrate his point, Mr. Salzman showed the audience the live video stream of the presentation as it was streamed to ad units on the Advertising Age Web site. He described it as a “meta media phenomenon.”
7. Display advertising will grow to be a $50 billion market.
When asked at the end of the presentation how these predictions would affect advertisers and agencies, Mr. Mohan and Mr. Salzman agreed that companies would have more time to focus on the creative aspects of their marketing campaigns. “The technology should just work,” Mr. Mohan said.
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